Fed Governor Milan Still Expects Four Rate Cuts in 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his expectation of four interest rate cuts in 2026, maintaining a sharply dovish stance that puts him well outside the Federal Open Market Committee’s consensus of just one cut this year.
Miran’s statement, reported on March 23, 2026, comes five days after the FOMC voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Miran was the sole dissenter at the March 18 meeting, preferring a 25 basis point cut.
Milan Holds Firm on Four Cuts Despite Uncertainty
“The current policy outlook still points to interest rate cuts. Four interest rate cuts are still expected in 2026,” Miran stated, adding that monetary policy decisions should not be driven by short-term market headlines.
Four cuts at 25 basis points each would total 100 basis points of easing, bringing the federal funds rate to roughly 2.5%-2.75% by year-end. The March 2026 dot plot projects only one cut for the full year, a stark gap between Miran and the rest of the committee.
Miran has been the most consistently dovish FOMC member throughout early 2026. In January, he called for over 150 basis points of cuts, equivalent to roughly six reductions. By late February, he had moderated that view to approximately 100 basis points, or four cuts.
That moderation suggests Miran is adjusting to incoming data while still maintaining a rate path far more aggressive than his colleagues. He cited the labor market as continuing to require policy support, noting that the FOMC’s own March statement acknowledged “job gains have remained low.”
Miran also addressed energy prices, stating that oil price shocks would not significantly impact core inflation measures and that an immediate Fed response to rising energy costs would be atypical under traditional central banking frameworks.
What Four Fed Rate Cuts Mean for Bitcoin and Crypto
The gap between Miran’s four-cut forecast and the FOMC consensus of one cut matters directly for crypto markets. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, since investors earn less from risk-free alternatives such as Treasury bills.
Bitcoin dropped approximately 5% following the March 18 FOMC hold decision. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index sits at 8, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. Crypto markets are currently pricing in roughly two rate cuts for 2026, a figure that falls between the FOMC dot plot consensus of one and Miran’s projection of four.
The division within the FOMC is itself a signal. As MEXC analysts observed, “there is a visible division within the committee about whether rates should come down sooner rather than later.” If upcoming labor data weakens further, Miran’s position could gain traction among other committee members, a scenario that would be structurally supportive for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Traders watching leveraged BTC positions get liquidated in volatile sessions know that Fed policy surprises can trigger cascading moves in crypto derivatives markets. At the same time, evolving SEC and CFTC rules on compliant crypto fundraising could independently shape how institutional capital flows into digital assets under a shifting rate regime.
Historically, rate-cut cycles have coincided with strong Bitcoin performance. The Fed’s 2019 mid-cycle cuts and the ultra-low-rate environment of 2020-2021 both saw significant BTC rallies. Correlation is not causation, and macro conditions are one input among many, but rate-sensitive positioning remains a meaningful driver of institutional crypto flows.
Upcoming FOMC Meetings and What to Watch
The next FOMC rate decision is scheduled for May 6-7, 2026. Between now and then, several key data releases will shape whether Miran’s dovish view gains or loses credibility.
The April Consumer Price Index report and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be closely watched. The March nonfarm payrolls report will test Miran’s argument that the labor market needs more support.
CME FedWatch implied probabilities currently suggest the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady at the May meeting. If the jobs data disappoints significantly, those odds could shift quickly, as could crypto market positioning. Market participants are already navigating uncertainty across the broader digital asset space, from altcoin volatility to evolving Layer 1 ecosystems.
The remaining 2026 FOMC meetings after May are scheduled for June, July, September, November, and December, giving the committee six more decision points to deliver the cuts Miran envisions.
For now, Miran stands alone on the committee. Whether he remains an outlier or becomes a leading indicator depends entirely on the data ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
