CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declares Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete due to market unpredictability.
- Ki Young Ju declares Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete, affecting market predictions.
- Cycle-driven predictions face challenges due to ETF inflows.
- Institutional dynamics reshape the crypto landscape with new strategies.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, announced the Bitcoin cycle theory’s obsolescence on April 23, 2025, citing unpredictable market conditions.
This shift undermines traditional prediction models, with ETFs and institutions now redefining market dynamics.
Bitcoin Cycle Theory Declared Obsolete by CryptoQuant
Ju, a leading figure in crypto analytics, declared the Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete. This theory had guided many traders, but recent ETF inflows and geopolitical influences have rendered it less relevant. Ju attributes this change to event-driven market reactions overpowering established on-chain indicators. His previous predictions failed as Bitcoin showed resilience, prompting a reassessment of the traditional cycle framework.
“If Bitcoin hits new ATH before Q4, I’m ready to throw out the cycle theory. A market without clear cycles could look very different from what we’ve experienced. In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.” — Ki Young Ju, CEO, CryptoQuant
Institutional Inflows Become Primary Market Drivers
The announcement has sparked changes in market analysis, with the emphasis moving towards institutional inflows as primary market drivers. This has altered traditional retail and mining models, impacting businesses reliant on the cycle theory. Financially, institutions like ETFs and entities such as MicroStrategy now play a pivotal role, adding complexity to market predictions. This shift may lead to a revised institutional strategy and market structure.
Institutional Trends Threaten Historic Bitcoin Patterns
Traditionally, Bitcoin price cycles aligned with the four-year halving events. However, new factors like institutional participation are changing this pattern, making historical comparisons less reliable. Experts suggest that if institutional trends persist, the market could see a sustained upward trajectory. This opens the possibility for novel market dynamics and further deviations from historical trends.
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