CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Cycle Theory Obsolete

Ju, a leading figure in crypto analytics, declared the Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete. This theory had guided many traders, but recent ETF inflows and geopolitical influences have rendered it less relevant. Ju attributes this change to event-driven market reactions overpowering established on-chain indicators. His previous predictions failed as Bitcoin showed resilience, prompting a reassessment of the traditional cycle framework.

“If Bitcoin hits new ATH before Q4, I’m ready to throw out the cycle theory. A market without clear cycles could look very different from what we’ve experienced. In that case, the permabulls were right. Up only.” — Ki Young Ju, CEO, CryptoQuant

The announcement has sparked changes in market analysis, with the emphasis moving towards institutional inflows as primary market drivers. This has altered traditional retail and mining models, impacting businesses reliant on the cycle theory. Financially, institutions like ETFs and entities such as MicroStrategy now play a pivotal role, adding complexity to market predictions. This shift may lead to a revised institutional strategy and market structure.

Traditionally, Bitcoin price cycles aligned with the four-year halving events. However, new factors like institutional participation are changing this pattern, making historical comparisons less reliable. Experts suggest that if institutional trends persist, the market could see a sustained upward trajectory. This opens the possibility for novel market dynamics and further deviations from historical trends.