ETF outflows and weak spot demand cap Bitcoin price below the 200-week EMA; analysts cite $66k pivot and $60k support as key levels as negative gamma persists.
ETF outflows and weak spot demand cap Bitcoin price below the 200-week EMA; analysts cite $66k pivot and $60k support as key levels as negative gamma persists.
What to Know:
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain moves through the $68,000–$70,000 band, leaving a bearish market structure in place and elevating the risk of a retest of $60,000. Rejections near the range high signal fading momentum, while sellers remained active on bounces.
As reported by Cointelegraph, market analyst Rekt Capital has emphasized that Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA is now acting as resistance, and failure to reclaim it has historically preceded deeper drawdowns. This level’s role shift from support to resistance is a key reason rallies have stalled.
According to Coinbase Institutional analysis, derivatives positioning adds fragility between $60,000 and $70,000, where negative gamma can amplify downside when spot weakens. The firm also identifies ~$60,000 as a critical structural floor, noting that a decisive breach may accelerate selling via hedging mechanics. Together with repeated failures at the range high, these mechanics outline a cautious near-term setup.
Analysts tracking on-chain positioning via Arkham-linked dashboards have highlighted a $66,000 pivot, warning that a daily breakdown below it increases the probability of a move toward $60,000. They also flag $63,000–$65,000 as an area where long-term holders have meaningful exposure, with a loss of this band likely to weaken dip-buying.
Institutional flows are also a headwind. As reported by MarketWatch, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $2.6 billion of cumulative outflows year-to-date, reflecting softer spot demand versus last year’s inflow phase. In the absence of consistent net buying, bounces may struggle to transition into trend reversals.
Market tone across crypto remains cautious after failed rebound attempts, reinforcing the near-term risk skew. As summarized by CryptoRank, “Yesterday’s green wave failed to sustain the gains. Today, the bears took back control, sending downside pressure across the crypto assets.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades in the mid-$65,000s, with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages near 79,499 and 98,192, respectively, above spot. The RSI-14 sits around 42, consistent with neutral-to-weak momentum, and 30-day realized conditions reflect high volatility near 9%. Recent performance shows 11 green days out of 30 alongside a bearish sentiment reading in the metrics feed.
The $68,000–$70,000 zone remains the immediate ceiling where rallies have been rejected, and where the 200-week EMA is reported to be capping price. Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above this band, lower highs and failed retests are likely to keep the structure bearish.
The $66,000 pivot is the first line where structure may deteriorate if lost on closing bases, opening risk toward $63,000–$65,000 and potentially the $60,000 floor. In this corridor, negative gamma means dealer hedging can magnify moves, so intraday breaks may travel faster than fundamentals imply.
Conversely, a sustained close back above $68,000–$70,000 would begin to invalidate the bearish pattern by reclaiming the 200-week EMA and flipping the range high into support. Until that occurs alongside improved spot flows, the base case remains range-bound with downside risk concentrated beneath $66,000 and toward $60,000.
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