Crypto First-Quarter Profit Squeeze Warning Hits Coinbase, Robinhood, Figure
Bernstein has warned that Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure Technology Solutions face a first-quarter profit squeeze, cutting price targets on all three crypto-linked stocks even as the broader market sits in extreme fear territory.
The investment firm lowered its Coinbase target to $330 from $440, Robinhood to $130 from $160, and Figure to $67 from $72. Bernstein kept Outperform ratings on all three names despite the cuts, signaling confidence in the stocks beyond the near-term earnings weakness.
The three companies were trading roughly 60% below their 2025 peaks heading into what Bernstein expects will be a soft earnings season for crypto-exposed equities.
Why Bernstein Sees a First-Quarter Profit Squeeze
WHAT TO KNOW
- Stock drawdown: Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure are roughly 60% below their 2025 highs.
- Volume decline: Coinbase spot trading volumes are tracking roughly 30% below Q4 2025 levels.
The core of Bernstein’s thesis rests on weakening trading activity. Coinbase spot volumes were tracking roughly 30% below Q4 2025 levels, a decline steep enough to prompt the firm to slash its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate for Coinbase by 44% to $5.97.
That kind of volume compression directly hits exchange revenue. For investors who watched Bitcoin rally toward six figures in late 2025, the cooldown represents a sharp reversal in the fee income that powered last year’s earnings beats.
Bernstein noted that all three stocks could bottom into weak Q1 earnings reports, suggesting the worst of the price action may be front-loaded rather than prolonged. The maintained Outperform ratings reinforce that view: the firm sees a buying opportunity, not a structural breakdown.
How Bitcoin Price Action and Sentiment Add to the Pressure
The earnings warning lands during a period of pronounced market stress. Bitcoin was changing hands at $73,454 with a market cap of roughly $1.47 trillion and 24-hour trading volume near $25 billion.
The Fear and Greed Index sat at 15, classified as Extreme Fear. That reading aligns with the risk-off mood Bernstein described but does not, on its own, prove a sector-wide profit squeeze.
The distinction matters. The available evidence confirms earnings pressure at specific crypto-linked companies, not a verified collapse across the entire industry. The broader framing that crypto’s honeymoon is over remains only partially supported by the data, with reporting centered on equities rather than on-chain fundamentals.
Still, for traders tracking whether altcoins can recover alongside majors, the extreme-fear backdrop complicates any near-term bullish case. Lower exchange volumes mean thinner liquidity, which tends to amplify price swings in both directions.
Why Analysts Still See Longer-Term Upside After the Selloff
Despite the near-term caution, Bernstein’s maintained Outperform ratings point to growth drivers that extend well beyond a single weak quarter. The firm projected Robinhood’s prediction-markets revenue at roughly $586 million in 2026, representing a 286% year-over-year increase.
Stablecoins, prediction markets and tokenized credit were highlighted as the structural tailwinds behind all three companies. These business lines sit inside evolving U.S. regulatory frameworks, which adds uncertainty but also barriers to entry that could benefit incumbents once rules clarify.
Cointelegraph independently reported that Coinbase, Robinhood and Figure remained positioned to benefit from those same growth areas despite trading at steep discounts to their 2025 highs. The convergence of multiple analyst views on the same long-term thesis suggests the selloff is priced as cyclical, not existential.
For investors weighing whether institutional interest in crypto products can sustain through a down quarter, the tension is clear: weak Q1 numbers are nearly certain, but the revenue streams that matter most are still scaling. The question is whether the market will wait for those growth catalysts to show up in actual earnings or continue punishing the stocks on near-term weakness.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
