Bitcoin ETFs and US equity ETFs are recording continued capital outflows as risk assets face synchronized selling pressure. Here is what the flow data shows.
Bitcoin ETFs and US equity ETFs are recording continued capital outflows as risk assets face synchronized selling pressure. Here is what the flow data shows.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $253 million in net outflows over just two days, extending a capital flight that has now pulled between $4.5 billion and $6.4 billion from Bitcoin fund products in 2026 alone. The selling is not confined to crypto. U.S. equity ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have shed a combined $64 billion over three months, marking a record stretch of redemptions and signaling a broad, synchronized risk-off rotation across asset classes.
Bitcoin traded at $70,697 at press time, down 23.2% over the past 60 days and roughly 43.9% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 12, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory, reflecting the severity of the current sentiment collapse.
The two-day $253 million outflow from spot BTC ETFs is part of a longer pattern. Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin ETF products have experienced the longest continuous outflow streak since their launch in January 2024, with total redemptions estimated at $4.5 billion to $6.4 billion year-to-date, according to PANews analysis.
When Ethereum ETF outflows are included, the combined four-month total climbs to approximately $9 billion. The scale of institutional withdrawal suggests this is not a temporary rebalancing but a sustained repositioning away from digital asset exposure.
On-chain data reinforces the picture. Glassnode figures show Bitcoin’s net profit-taking rate reached $17 million per hour during the heaviest selling windows, indicating that holders who accumulated at lower prices are actively locking in gains rather than riding out the drawdown.
A brief geopolitical relief rally on March 16 lifted BTC by roughly 6%, but the bounce proved short-lived and failed to reverse the structural outflow trend. With the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict now in its fourth week, macro uncertainty continues to weigh on risk appetite.
The Bitcoin outflows are not happening in isolation. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs have recorded a combined $64 billion in net redemptions over three months, a record figure that underscores how deeply the risk-off trade has penetrated traditional markets.
The synchronized selling across both crypto and equity ETFs points to a single macro driver rather than asset-specific weakness. Geopolitical instability, persistent inflation concerns, and renewed uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate policy have collectively pushed institutional capital toward safer positioning.
Bitcoin’s correlation with equity markets has tightened during this episode. Both asset classes are responding to the same risk signals, which undermines the narrative that BTC functions as an uncorrelated hedge during periods of traditional market stress.
Still, not all analysts read the data the same way. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, has described Bitcoin as emerging as a “relative safe haven” compared with other asset classes, noting that its drawdown, while steep, has been less severe on a relative basis than some equity sectors.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas offered a longer-term perspective, cautioning investors not to “judge gold or Bitcoin on a short window of price action.” The comment suggests that some institutional observers view the current outflows as cyclical rather than structural.
The $70,000 level has emerged as a critical near-term support zone for Bitcoin. A sustained break below it could accelerate selling, particularly among leveraged positions and shorter-term holders who entered during the late-2025 rally. Some market participants have flagged $55,000 as a potential downside target if geopolitical conditions do not improve, though that scenario remains unattributed and speculative.
Analysts have drawn parallels to the Russia-Ukraine pattern of early 2022, when risk assets experienced an initial rebound on hopes of de-escalation before resuming their decline as the conflict persisted. If the U.S.-Israel-Iran situation follows a similar trajectory, any relief rallies may prove temporary.
The next concrete macro catalyst is the upcoming FOMC meeting, where any shift in rate guidance could either reinforce or challenge the current risk-off positioning. With rate hike odds already elevated, hawkish commentary would likely add further pressure to both crypto and equity ETF flows.
For Bitcoin specifically, the key signal to watch is whether ETF outflows begin to stabilize. The longest outflow streak since ETF launch will eventually end, but until daily flow data turns neutral or positive, the path of least resistance for BTC remains to the downside. Developments in regulatory frameworks for digital assets could also shift institutional sentiment, though no near-term policy changes are expected.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
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