Bitcoin faces supply shift as U.S. reserve risks 30% cut

What to Know:

• Court-ordered restitution could cut U.S. Bitcoin reserve by roughly 30%.
• Bitfinex-linked BTC return threatens significant drawdown in government-held reserves.

The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could face a reduction of roughly 30% if a court authorizes in-kind restitution of BTC tied to the 2016 Bitfinex hack. Any ruling would reflect legal entitlement and asset custody changes, not a discretionary sale.

The question before the court is whether seized and forfeited coins should be returned to Bitfinex or to affected customers. Outcomes remain contingent on competing claims and judicial timelines.

According to CryptoSlate, the reserve includes approximately 328,372 BTC under government control. The same reporting indicates that more than 94,000 BTC linked to the 2016 Bitfinex breach could be subject to restitution, implying an estimated 30% drawdown if transferred.

As reported by CoinDesk, U.S. prosecutors asked a federal court in January 2025 to authorize returning about 94,643 BTC as in-kind restitution to Bitfinex. If granted, the coins would move from government-controlled wallets rather than being liquidated for cash.

Impact: legal transfer risk, not a market sale event

Mechanically, a restitution order would transfer specific coins to the legally entitled party, reducing reported reserve balances without adding sell pressure via a market transaction. Such movements typically proceed under court supervision and established custody procedures.

“Approximately 94,636 BTC tied to the Bitfinex hack , roughly 30% of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve , remain subject to legal proceedings and could ultimately be returned to victims rather than retained as sovereign assets,” said Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research.

According to The Block, Bitfinex’s LEO token has traded at a notable premium to implied value, a market signal that some participants anticipate progress on restitution and subsequent buy-and-burn activity by the exchange. The report frames this as a legal-process indicator rather than imminent net selling pressure.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin traded around $68,532, based on data from TradingView.

What is the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve refers to government-controlled BTC designated as a strategic reserve asset. These holdings are primarily sourced through Department of Justice forfeiture and Treasury-managed processes following criminal cases, not open-market purchases.

Policy discussions at federal and state levels increasingly treat Bitcoin as a long-horizon reserve instrument. Classification, custody, and disclosures remain shaped by evolving court rulings and agency accounting practices.