Bubblemaps says a wallet cluster earned $2.4 million from Polymarket military bets, raising fresh questions about on-chain tracing and prediction markets.
Bubblemaps says a wallet cluster earned $2.4 million from Polymarket military bets, raising fresh questions about on-chain tracing and prediction markets.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has identified a cluster of nine linked wallets that collectively earned $2.4 million betting on U.S. military actions through prediction market Polymarket, with a reported 98% win rate across more than 80 bets.
CBS News reported on May 17 that nine connected Polymarket accounts made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on outcomes tied to U.S. military operations. The findings were attributed to Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman, who shared the on-chain analysis with CBS.
The wallets achieved a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets, a statistical pattern that Vaiman said defies chance. “This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman told CBS. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
“This is a new kind of insider trading.”
— Rob Schwartz, via CBS News
According to Bubblemaps’ interpretation cited by Decrypt, the nine accounts were created just days before the initial U.S. bombardment of Iran. The winnings were reportedly off-ramped to Bybit while also touching Binance and HTX, according to the analysts. Small losing trades may have been intentionally placed to mislead investigators, according to unconfirmed analysis from Bubblemaps.
Polymarket has emerged as one of crypto’s most visible prediction platforms, attracting significant volume on geopolitical contracts. The platform’s own documentation confirms that geopolitical and world-events markets are fee-free, meaning the platform does not profit from trading activity on those contracts. That zero-fee structure lowers the barrier for high-volume coordinated betting.
Military-themed prediction contracts carry heightened sensitivity because payouts hinge on real-world events with life-or-death consequences. The concentration of winning bets in a single wallet cluster raises questions about whether participants had access to nonpublic information, though identities and access to classified material have not been established.
Polymarket told CBS that suspicious activity is referred to law enforcement and that insider trading is not welcome on the platform. The platform’s help center states that the United States is a blocked country and that using VPNs or similar tools to bypass geographic restrictions violates its Terms of Service.
The White House issued a memo in March 2026 noting it is a criminal offense to use nonpublic information on prediction markets. Oversight of these platforms in the U.S. falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has yet to publicly comment on the Bubblemaps findings.
The episode highlights the double-edged nature of blockchain transparency. On one hand, on-chain analytics tools like Bubblemaps can map wallet relationships and surface suspicious patterns that would be invisible in traditional betting markets. On the other, the pseudonymous nature of crypto wallets means investigators can see the money trail without necessarily identifying the people behind it.
Prediction markets depend on confidence in fair participation. A cluster of wallets winning nearly every military bet erodes that confidence, particularly as platforms like Polymarket expand into sensitive geopolitical territory. The case echoes broader debates around regulatory frameworks for crypto platforms that operate at the intersection of finance and real-world events.
For exchanges involved in the fund flow, the incident adds pressure to strengthen compliance screening. The reported movement of funds through Bybit, Binance, and HTX raises questions about how effectively centralized and decentralized trading platforms monitor for proceeds tied to suspicious prediction market activity.
Bitcoin traded near $76,671 at press time, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, while the crypto Fear and Greed Index sat at 25, signaling extreme fear. The broader market backdrop underscores a risk-off environment where stories about market integrity carry extra weight.
The Bubblemaps investigation also spotlights a growing role for on-chain forensics firms in holding prediction markets accountable. As stablecoin infrastructure expands and USDC-settled markets grow, the ability to trace fund flows across chains and exchanges becomes a critical layer of market oversight, one that traditional regulators are only beginning to leverage.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
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