Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s most likely cycle low lands in October 2026, with May still possible. Here’s the BTC data behind the call.
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin still has room to search for a cycle low, with the analyst arguing that the market is more likely to carve out its bottom later in the year than during a fast spring washout. Current sentiment and drawdown data show why traders are still treating that call as a live macro debate rather than a settled outcome.
What to Know
- On February 8, 2026, Cowen wrote that BTC’s most likely low is October 2026, though May 2026 remains possible if the decline compresses.
- Current context is still weak: CoinGecko shows $74,683, Alternative.me shows a Fear and Greed Index reading of 23, and Glassnode tracks a 47.3% drawdown with persistent ETF outflows.
Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s Most Likely Bottom Is October 2026
In a LinkedIn post dated February 8, 2026, Benjamin Cowen said the most likely BTC low is October 2026 and added that a faster washout could bring that window forward to May 2026. That statement is a forecast based on cycle analysis, not a confirmed market event.
“The most likely low for #BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle.”
Benjamin Cowen in a LinkedIn post from February 8, 2026
Cowen said he currently favors October 2026 over May 2026 because countertrend rallies lasting weeks to months would delay the final low into early Q4. In other words, the more Bitcoin bounces on the way down, the later Cowen thinks the cycle low arrives.
What Bitcoin Market Data Says Right Now
CoinGecko showed Bitcoin at $74,683, with a 24-hour change of 0.04% and a market cap of about $1.49 trillion. A nearly unchanged daily move does not by itself confirm capitulation.
Alternative.me showed a Fear and Greed Index reading of 23, labeled Extreme Fear. With sentiment that weak and Glassnode still reporting ETF outflows, attention has stayed on Bitcoin’s search for a floor rather than rotating decisively into themes such as layer-2 developer activity, Visa’s validator role on Tempo, or the longer institutional story behind Wall Street giants launching Bitcoin ETFs.
In a February 25, 2026 report, Glassnode said BTC was range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, sitting at a 47.3% drawdown from all-time high while ETF flows stayed in persistent outflow and 9.2 million BTC of supply was in loss. That mix of deep drawdown, supply in loss, and ongoing ETF outflows is the concrete backdrop for Cowen’s later-cycle thesis.
Why Cowen Favors October Over a May Bottom
In a December 23, 2025 Bankless interview, Cowen said Bitcoin had more than likely already topped for the cycle if the historical cycle framework remained intact. That earlier interview matters because it shows the later LinkedIn post was an extension of an existing thesis rather than a sudden reversal.
He pointed to prior cycle lengths of 1,062 days, 1,059 days, and 1,067 days, arguing that Bitcoin has followed a remarkably tight rhythm across past peaks. Those prior lengths are the historical data behind his expectation that the eventual low lands later in the year unless the decline compresses unusually quickly.
Cowen also said Bitcoin typically rallies back to the 50-week moving average to confirm a bear market, and he put that line near $102,000 at the time of the interview. That marker helps explain why he still sees room for countertrend bounces without treating those rallies as proof that the final low is already in.
Outlook for Bitcoin’s Bottoming Window
Under Cowen’s framework, a May 2026 bottom would require a sharper flush, while weeks-to-months of relief rallies would push the low toward October 2026. That leaves traders watching the character of any rebound, not just the direction of the next move.
For now, CoinGecko’s $74,683 spot reading, Alternative.me’s 23 fear score, and Glassnode’s 47.3% drawdown all describe stress, but not a fully repaired demand backdrop. Until ETF flows stabilize and supply-in-loss metrics start improving, Cowen’s later-dated scenario remains understandable even if it is still only a forecast.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
