Wintermute is providing liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket, linking crypto market-making expertise with fast-growing prediction markets.
Wintermute is providing liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket, linking crypto market-making expertise with fast-growing prediction markets.
Wintermute, one of the largest crypto-native market makers, has begun providing liquidity on prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, marking the firm’s expansion beyond traditional crypto trading venues into event-based contract markets.
The firm announced its entry into prediction markets as event contract trading volume surpassed $60 billion in 2026. The move positions Wintermute’s algorithmic trading infrastructure to serve a fast-growing segment of digital finance.
What to Know
Liquidity provision involves a firm continuously quoting prices on both sides of a market. This narrows the gap between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are asking, reducing the cost of entering or exiting a position.
For traders on Kalshi and Polymarket, Wintermute’s presence should translate into tighter spreads and more consistent order book depth. Both platforms offer contracts tied to real-world events, from economic data releases to political outcomes, and liquid markets make pricing on those contracts more reliable.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange in the United States, while Polymarket runs on blockchain-based infrastructure. By serving both, Wintermute is bridging regulated and decentralized prediction market ecosystems simultaneously.
Wintermute has built its reputation as a high-volume trading firm across centralized and decentralized crypto exchanges. Its decision to allocate resources to prediction markets signals that the firm sees meaningful opportunity in event contracts, a category that has drawn increasing institutional attention throughout 2025 and 2026.
Professional liquidity providers bring infrastructure, capital, and pricing expertise that can improve market quality. For prediction markets still maturing in terms of participation depth, the arrival of an established market maker could help attract more sophisticated traders who require reliable execution.
The move also lends credibility to prediction markets as a legitimate trading category. When firms with established track records begin operating on these platforms, it may encourage other market participants to follow, much as growing activity on newer crypto platforms has reflected increasing institutional comfort with emerging trading venues.
Wintermute’s expansion reflects a broader pattern of crypto-native trading firms exploring opportunities beyond spot and derivatives markets. Prediction markets, while distinct from token trading, share underlying mechanics familiar to algorithmic market makers: order books, probabilistic pricing, and event-driven volatility.
The distinction matters. Prediction markets trade contracts tied to discrete real-world outcomes rather than asset prices. This requires different risk models and pricing frameworks, even if the execution infrastructure overlaps with what firms like Wintermute already operate.
The convergence between crypto infrastructure and adjacent digital markets extends beyond trading. Events like the Artificial Intelligence Summit in Indonesia and initiatives such as GovXcellence Jakarta reflect broader momentum in digital technology adoption that spans finance, governance, and emerging markets.
With event contract trading volume at $60 billion in 2026, the overlap between crypto trading infrastructure and prediction markets appears to be accelerating. Whether other major crypto market makers follow Wintermute onto Kalshi and Polymarket will depend on how this initial expansion performs.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
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