Trump Gold Card Sales Claim Challenged by Prediction Market

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91% Polymarket Prediction Against Gold Card Sales

An analysis disputes Trump’s Gold Card sales claims, with Polymarket showing a 91% prediction against any cards being sold in 2025.

This event reveals skepticism about the program’s viability, reflecting doubts about its ability to generate revenue for the U.S. government.

91% Polymarket Prediction Against Gold Card Sales

The prediction market Polymarket challenges the U.S. administration’s Gold Card sales narrative. Donald Trump has promoted this initiative as a major revenue generator through expedited residency rights. As of the snapshot, “about 91% of open interest was on ‘no Gold Cards sold in 2025’, with over $7 million wagered on that outcome.” [source]

Market Skepticism Darkens Feasibility Prospects

Data from Polymarket indicates substantial market skepticism. With 91% of bets against the sale of any Gold Cards in 2025, the initiative’s feasibility is questioned.

These predictions point to challenges in implementation and legislative approval, impacting political and market expectations. No on-chain transactions currently link this policy to the crypto or DeFi market.

Historical Investor Programs Pose Challenges

Historically, similar programs like the EB-5 investor visa focused on job creation. The Gold Card’s emphasis on wealth presents unique legal and market challenges not seen in prior initiatives.

Experts predict limited success without congressional approval, as demonstrated by past investor visa outcomes. This could lead to fewer applications and reduced financial impact than anticipated.

Donald J. Trump – President, “Basically, it’s a green card but much better…much more powerful, a much stronger path,” characterizing the Gold Card as premium permanent residency. [source]